阳光财经 Sunny · YouTuber updates · US Stock Watch

阳光财经 Sunny

@SUNNYFINANCE40 videosChinese channel

2026-10-191 video

2026-10-19

Is this a dip-buying opportunity or just a dead cat bounce? [2026-10-19]

Is this a dip-buying opportunity or just a dead cat bounce? [2026-10-19]

7 bull · 0 bear · 9 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ CRWV NVDA AMZN MU+4

SPYneutralmid-termThe host believes the S&P 500 faces resistance from the 20-day MA and support from the 60-day MA, forming a trendless oscillation; it has been range-bound since the last new high with no new direction. A decline would require major bearish news, while gains are also difficult because the index has already exceeded the average annualized return this year; simply staying stable for the rest of the year would make it a strong year.Source
QQQneutralThe host believes the Nasdaq index rose 1.11% today, stabilizing after a short-term decline, but remains within a wide oscillation framework with no smooth uptrend; it has half-year line support on declines, and if tech stocks face sudden major bearish news it could break below the half-year line. Without such news, it would maintain high-level oscillation until the Chinese New Year, potentially reducing Q4 money-making opportunities.Source
Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe host expects next week's Fed meeting to keep rates unchanged, with an 82.8% probability of holding; due to reluctance to cause market turmoil before midterms and historical patterns, the Fed will not aggressively change rates in October, delaying the year's one hike to December, when the hike probability rises to 90.2%.Source

CRWVneutralThe host notes that an AI company, CRWV, is also about to fall to junk grade, implying its credit condition is near junk.Source
Bonds & RatesneutralThe host believes French debt risk is not contagious for now; after selling French bonds, funds bought German bonds for safety, showing the market is shorting France rather than Europe, so it is unlikely to trigger a new European debt crisis.Source
Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host expects that even if a European debt crisis returns, US stocks are unlikely to see a fundamental reversal; they may pull back sharply in the short term if the crisis erupts, but will ultimately show strong resilience, emerge from the crisis, and make new highs.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksThe host believes banning Chinese AI is a positive for US domestic AI giants, because a price war would lower these giants' revenue and extend the payback period of capital expenditures.Source
Otherpositive for stocksThe host believes the ban on Chinese AI is also a positive for the two large model companies preparing for IPOs.Source
NVDAneutralThe host believes NVIDIA's chip ecosystem is a moat in AI, with developers heavily dependent on it; however, Amazon's new tool aims to bypass this moat and may help Amazon win over NVIDIA's customers.Source
AMZNbullishlong-termThe host believes Amazon's new tool helps bypass NVIDIA's chip ecosystem moat and may win over customers; Amazon surged 5% today, with a good long-term uptrend and few big drops, though the pace of gains is relatively slow.Source
Otherneutralshort-termThe host notes the Korean KOSPI index rebounded 1.76% overnight and is near the edge of a bear market; if it breaks down further, it could turn into a downtrend.Source
MUbullishshort-termThe host believes US and Korean memory stocks may have rebound opportunities; Micron (MU) rebounded 3% today but remains below his cost basis, with the stock standing above 900 dollars yet suppressed by multiple moving averages, the biggest pressure at the half-year line of 932 dollars. Valuation is not high, but the strong cyclical nature raises Davis double-kill concerns; however, he still holds the stock, is not deeply trapped, and is not worried about being unable to break even.Source
SPCXbullishlong-termThe host believes Musk's donation of SPCX shares to American children, locked for five years and not sold, is a significant positive for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX); Barclays issued a buy rating with a 254 dollar target price, citing unparalleled technology and cost barriers and Starlink's high-margin business as bringing long-term high-growth, high-margin certainty. However, the host also notes its valuation already prices in ultra-long-term technological breakthroughs, leaving market cap and valuation quite high.Source
TSLAbullishshort-termThe host predicts a relatively high probability that Tesla will rise after earnings and bets on an increase; Tesla rebounded 3.76% today, showing support at the 60-day MA, with funds betting ahead of earnings on positives such as auto revenue beats, energy storage growth, Full Self-Driving and AI chip progress, and robotaxi cumulative mileage. The options market prices post-earnings movement at about 24 dollars (6.5%), and in the past five reports it rose twice and fell three times. His public account recovered 2.18% due to Tesla's rebound, and he still holds the stock.Source
TERneutralThe host says TER has no major trend and is always oscillating; if he finds new favored stocks, he may reduce his TER position to rebalance.Source
QCOMneutralThe host says QCOM has no major trend and is always oscillating; if he finds new favored stocks, he may reduce his QCOM position to rebalance.Source

Fed PolicyBonds & RatesOtherAI Capex

2026-10-161 video

2026-10-16

Jensen Huang steps in to save the day, contrarian heavyweights buy in. [2026-10-16]

Jensen Huang steps in to save the day, contrarian heavyweights buy in. [2026-10-16]

2 bull · 4 bear · 11 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ CRWV SOXX AAPL SPCX+8

SPYneutralThe S&P 500 fell back toward 7620, and the host views the situation as not good, though he does not state a clear direction.Source
QQQneutralThe Nasdaq closed below its half-year line; past breakdowns were bottom-fishing opportunities, but the host thinks this time one should wait and is unsure whether it becomes a larger correction.Source
Bonds & RatesneutralMedium- and long-term bond rates are set by market trading; rising rates increase financing costs for governments and corporations, ultimately suppressing investment, which is equivalent to monetary tightening.Source

OtherneutralFrance's debt problems stem from fiscal deterioration and political turmoil, but given France's large economy, the host judges the probability of another European debt crisis as not high.Source
OtherneutralAs market rates rise and AI-related financing grows, US corporate credit risk has increased, with CDS prices moving higher.Source
CRWVbearishshort-termCRWV has received continuous buying from Cathie Wood and verbal support from Jensen Huang, yet the stock fell sharply; the host thinks Cathie Wood's bottom-fishing may not be a positive because in past years stocks she bought on the left side of a decline continued to fall further by inertia.Source
SOXXbearishmid-termThe phased risk in AI has grown and semiconductors have fallen for eight straight sessions; the host thinks if there is no short-term rebound, the semiconductor sector could weaken over the medium term, and since the SOXX doubled in April, the pullback will be painful.Source
AAPLbullishApple's foldable phone preorders show strong demand and the stock has been stable amid a weak market; the host thinks Apple's upside is limited and the stock will only grind higher slowly.Source
SPCXneutralThe host analyzes the pros and cons of a Tesla-SpaceX merger, noting benefits like resource integration and stronger financing, but concludes that share dilution and high antitrust approval hurdles across multiple countries basically make the merger unlikely.Source
KObullishlong-termWhile tech stocks are weak, traditional consumer staple Coca-Cola hit another record high; the host notes its chart shows a long-term uptrend with limited, brief pullbacks, always making new highs.Source
IBMneutralThe host notes there are many earnings highlights next week, with IBM's Wednesday report being worth watching.Source
AXPneutralThe host notes many earnings highlights next week, with American Express's Friday report being worth watching.Source
METAneutralThe host notes many earnings highlights next week, with Meta's Wednesday report being worth watching.Source
NFLXbearishlong-termNetflix is not closely tied to AI; although it has ample cash flow and low capex, user growth and price hikes are hard, leaving no high-growth story, and the market is gradually no longer valuing it as a high-growth tech stock.Source
TSLAbearishshort-termTesla's upcoming earnings are expected to show YoY declines in revenue and EPS, with possible gross margin drop and negative cash flow; the host thinks the stock is volatile with a larger downward probability, and if earnings are poor, the chance of falling exceeds that of rising.Source
MSFTneutralThe host says large positions like Microsoft in his public account were not performing well, dragging the account lower.Source
GOOGLneutralThe host says large positions like Alphabet, Tesla, and Microsoft in his public account were not performing well, dragging the account lower.Source

Bonds & RatesOther

2026-10-151 video

2026-10-15

Stock Market Plummets to Circuit Breaker, Will It Contagious? [2026-10-15]

Stock Market Plummets to Circuit Breaker, Will It Contagious? [2026-10-15]

2 bull · 3 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

SPY MU TSM ASML ORCL CRWV+2

Othernegative for stocksmid-termThe KOSPI index has formed a severe large head-and-shoulders top pattern after its plunge, which is a bearish technical structure implying further downside pressure.Source
SPYbullishThe host believes that if an emerging-market crash occurs, US stocks (represented by the S&P 500 ETF SPY) might even rise, but the statement is heavily hedged and uncertain.Source
ValuationneutralThe host said his favorite individual stocks still look expensive, while his overall position is already high and his available funds are limited; he disclosed his personal positioning without stating a price direction.Source

MUbullishshort-termThe host thinks it is difficult for MU to break above 1254 and make a new high; the B-wave rebound high will be below the prior high of 1254, rounded to about 1200. A 20% rebound is feasible in the short term for this strong stock, but capacity expansion and a possible Chinese storage price war mean a major long-term correction and lower gross margins are inevitable.Source
OtherneutralThe host noted that China's ChangXin Memory may start a price war, putting pressure on the storage sector; once Chinese products are mass-produced, hardware prices fall, which is negative for hardware makers.Source
TSMneutrallong-termThe host said TSMC's results are genuinely strong, with Q3 revenue and EPS growing sharply and exceeding guidance, while advanced-node revenue mix is high and hard for competitors to match; the fundamentals are thriving, but no explicit stock price direction was given.Source
ASMLneutralThe host mentioned that upstream semiconductor leaders ASML and TSMC both reported very impressive results, but these have not reversed the semiconductor sector's short-term decline; no explicit stock price direction was provided.Source
OtherneutralThe host believes the semiconductor sector's short-term decline does not necessarily become a mid- to long-term bear market, but credit risk at Oracle and CoreWeave must be taken seriously; a default in the AI supply chain could trigger an AI-style financial crisis.Source
ORCLbearishshort-termThe host noted Oracle's leverage is close to 5x, bond rates are above 8%, and CDS prices frequently spike; although it remains profitable, higher financial costs will reduce its profit, making the current credit risk outlook negative.Source
CRWVbearishshort-termThe host believes CoreWeave's risk is greater than Oracle's because its business is single-focused and less resilient; debt-funded GPU purchases have pushed its rate to 15%, bond investors see higher credit risk, and rising rates will worsen its losses.Source
TSLAneutralThe host mentioned Tesla's Roadster launch event but was unsure whether the car can fly; he only said the stock certainly has not taken off, giving no clear price direction.Source
TERneutralThe host disclosed his public account holdings: Teradyne (TER) is the biggest recent loser in his portfolio and has been on a roller coaster; four of his positions are now at small losses, and he feels it will be hard to recover this year.Source

OtherValuation

2026-10-141 video

2026-10-14

US Stocks: Market Plunged, What to Do. [2026-10-14]

US Stocks: Market Plunged, What to Do. [2026-10-14]

3 bull · 3 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY ORCL ASML SOXX GFS MSFT+5

SPYneutralThe S&P 500 fell about 1.11% today, a decline not comparable to a circuit-breaker crash, with previously profitable sectors taking profits. The host personally judges that as long as the index holds above 7,620, it can be treated as high-level consolidation and there is no need to panic; the real worry is whether the market is forming a top and turning from bull to bear.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksThe bearish breakthrough in the artificial intelligence rally will appear in weak links; if a second- or third-tier compute provider defaults on debt and faces collapse, the entire AI sector would be bloodied, and an individual bond default would inevitably detonate the overall AI bubble. The risk may not happen immediately but is accumulating.Source
ORCLbearishlong-termOracle's stock has been in a long-term decline and fell another 9% today. It has over $100 billion in debt, was downgraded to 3B- by S&P, has leverage as high as 490%, and CDS prices have surged; the bond market fears serious repayment risk or bankruptcy within five years. For companies with high bond-default risk, the host advises not to buy their stock.Source

ASMLneutralASML reported strong Q3 results, with revenue, net profit and gross margin all beating expectations, and raised its full-year guidance; lithography orders are booked into 2030, showing robust chip demand. However, the strong earnings failed to help, and the stock still closed down nearly 4%.Source
SOXXbearishAffected by factors such as Chinese memory makers entering the market, semiconductors have adjusted for several days. Despite growing compute investment and strong chip demand, these positives could not stabilize the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index; the index broke down again, the third breakdown since its April doubling, with almost all 30 components declining.Source
GFSbullishshort-termGlobalFoundries was the only gainer in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index today after being named by Trump and receiving US government equity investment; Japan is providing $21 billion to cooperate on a chip plant and the US government took a 4% stake. Following the Intel example of taking off after government investment, the stock is consolidating after a big drop with 8.7% turnover, and appears to offer some trading opportunity to carefully bet on a rebound.Source
MSFTneutralMicrosoft hit a new high yesterday and pulled back with the market today. It plans to expand global data center capacity from 12 GW to 38 GW by 2032, and capex may continue to rise; however, it is the only cloud giant with large positive free cash flow and is not short of money, so it can keep competing in the compute arms race.Source
JPMneutralJPMorgan sharply reduced its share buyback, obviously feeling the stock is too expensive to buy; the risk warning from the largest Wall Street bank's chief is now backed by action, not just words. Combined with bank stocks yielding only about 2% while bonds often yield above 5%, the host does not really recommend bank stocks at present.Source
BACbullishshort-termBank of America's earnings missed and it was fined $1.21 billion for money laundering, but compared with Wells Fargo and TD Bank the penalty is lighter and carries no business restrictions, so it is not too bad. Following the TD Bank example, whose stock doubled after a money-laundering-related drop, Bank of America, as a US systemically important bank, has a higher-probability rebound opportunity after a short-term negative-driven decline.Source
NFLXbullishshort-termNetflix is cutting 6% of staff, about 1,000 people, its largest since 2022; layoffs reduce wage expenses without affecting streaming revenue, thus raising profit. Although the stock fell today because of the weak market, higher profit and lower valuation may help it bottom and rebound.Source
MUneutralThe host's public account had a net value of about 198,000 today, giving back 5,185, a loss of 2.55%, underperforming the market; the floating-loss stocks are still those three, with the Micron position losing the most—a 20,000 investment is now down about 1,800. This is a personal position disclosure with no directional view.Source
TSLAneutralTesla will hold a Roadster sports car launch event, but the host thinks the event will not have much impact on the stock price, which will mainly follow the broader market trend.Source

AI Capex

2026-10-131 video

2026-10-13

Memory chips crash this time; no buybacks for now, Wall Street's best CEO votes bearish with actions. [2026-10-13]

Memory chips crash this time; no buybacks for now, Wall Street's best CEO votes bearish with actions. [2026-10-13]

5 bull · 4 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ MU UNH JPM MSFT+1

SPYneutrallong-termThe S&P 500 has been consolidating for over two months after its August breakout; with large prior gains, valuation not surging as much as price, and S&P 500 EPS expected to grow 29%, longs and shorts are in a tentative balance, resulting in a long-term horizontal consolidation.Source
QQQbullishmid-termThe Nasdaq is barely maintaining its breakout pattern, closing at 27,204, above the June 2 high of 27,171; if it can hold above 27,171, it can use time to exchange for space and gradually move higher.Source
Bonds & RatesneutralSurging long-term Treasury yields push up mortgage and auto loan rates, which indeed suppresses consumption demand in rate-sensitive sectors, acting as a form of monetary tightening.Source

Fed Policypositive for stockslong-termNY Fed's Williams said one more hike this year is appropriate and no further hikes next year; the host views this as very dovish, and if the hiking cycle ends after one more hike, it would be a major positive for US stocks.Source
Valuationneutrallong-termThe host thinks some of Paul Tudor Jones's points have basis: upcoming trillion-scale AI company IPOs will add share supply, rising bond rates increase equity risk, and more prominent shorts are betting on a bubble burst; however, with over two months left in the year, it is too early to conclude.Source
OtherneutralNew products such as Meta's glasses and Apple's smart home hub show that AI is extending into connected devices, no longer limited to computers and phones.Source
Othernegative for stocksshort-termSouth Korean stocks plunged on Tuesday, with Samsung and SK Hynix down 9% to 10%; Hynix's Korean shares are at 1.44 million won and are falling, potentially breaking down and forming a historic top.Source
Othernegative for stockslong-termAs new capacity from CXMT and others comes online, memory chip prices falling is a high-probability event, and margins will not stay ultra-high forever; if a price war starts, the good times for memory companies will end.Source
MUbullishmid-termMicron (MU) fundamentals are still decent over a one-year horizon, but ultra-high memory profits are unlikely to persist longer-term; the host holds 20 shares, bought too high, had planned to sell at 1200 but the target was not reached, and is now waiting to break even, believing recovery is not very difficult.Source
UNHbearishshort-termUnitedHealth's Q3 results beat expectations, but the stock opened high and closed low with a large bearish candle, resembling a 'sell the news' reaction, indicating a poor short-term trend.Source
UNHbullishlong-termDespite short-term weakness, UnitedHealth is now a profitable insurance leader and Dow component with a decent dividend yield, making it investable for the ultra-long term.Source
JPMbearishshort-termJPMorgan's Q3 EPS and revenue both missed, and buybacks plunged 84%, indicating Dimon views the stock as too expensive; bank stock dividends are unattractive versus Treasuries, and with bond yields above 5% their appeal is limited, making the buyback cut a risk warning.Source
OtherneutralSpaceX (referred to as SPCX) has fallen for six straight sessions; after bottoming at 104 the bottom is relatively clear, but its risk-reward may be inferior to other tech giants, and like Tesla its volatility could be relatively high.Source
MSFTbullishshort-termMicrosoft hit a new high at 551 and Barclays raised its target to 600; as an AI name with solid cloud growth and capex covered by revenue, a breakout to new highs should theoretically remain bullish, though the next direction largely depends on the October 28 earnings, with possible consolidation at highs before then.Source
SHOPneutralShopify's Canadian-dollar-listed shares have hit a new high, but its USD US-listed shares have not; over the past six months this is due to a weak CAD and strong USD, not the stock's own fundamentals or bull/bear forces—it is purely a currency effect.Source

Bonds & RatesFed PolicyValuationOther

2026-10-121 video

2026-10-12

Why semiconductors continue to slide. [2026-10-12]

Why semiconductors continue to slide. [2026-10-12]

8 bull · 3 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ SOXX AVGO INTC AMZN+7

SPYbullishshort-termThe S&P 500 fell slightly but held above the 5-day moving average, leaving the short-term trend intact; as long as no large bearish candle appears, the uptrend can continue, while a big red candle would trigger panic.Source
QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq 100 fell 0.44%, capped by the 5-day moving average but supported by the 10-day moving average, so it still has some hope of maintaining its upward trend; unless a big bearish candle suddenly appears in the short term, staying stable is fine.Source
Geopoliticsnegative for stocksWith the Saudi airport attacked by Houthis, security challenges at the Red Sea and Hormuz, and the Russia-Ukraine war continuing without even an energy-facility truce holding, geopolitical conditions in the Middle East and Eurasia have not improved but worsened, which is not good for financial markets.Source

Oil & Energypositive for stocksmid-termDue to worsening Middle East tensions, fragile supply, and potential Hormuz disruption, oil is likely to rise rather than fall; Goldman's Brent target of $90 lacks conviction with spot at $106. If Brent breaks 115 and approaches 130, equities could face turbulence.Source
Fed Policyneutrallong-termLong-term bond yields have risen sharply and corporate funding costs are high, which already has a tightening effect akin to the market hiking for the central bank, so the central bank can reduce the number of hikes; I expect about one hike this year and one next year.Source
SOXXbullishmid-termThe Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gapped down 2.67% for a third straight day, but has mid/long-term moving average support from the 60-day and half-year lines; as the main AI sector it should not break down, and I guess it will stabilize near the half-year line around 12,178 before rising again.Source
AVGOneutralBroadcom CEO Hock Tan said financing will become a bigger obstacle to AI expansion, exceeding hardware and power shortages, consistent with the view that funding is the next bottleneck.Source
INTCneutralIntel CEO Lip-Bu Tan also voiced concern about rising funding costs, joining Broadcom in warning that while computing demand exceeds supply, funding could become the next bottleneck.Source
AMZNneutralMicrosoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, the four cloud giants, will soon see their capex become the biggest focus of the earnings season as the market looks for answers on AI ROI.Source
GOOGLneutralMicrosoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, the four cloud giants, will soon see their capex become the biggest focus of the earnings season as the market looks for answers on AI ROI.Source
NVDAneutralChip giants such as Nvidia have seen receivable days lengthen and turnover decline, indicating chips are still in short supply, but longer downstream payment days also mean tighter funding conditions.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksshort-termRising bond rates increase borrowing costs for computing-power investment, lengthening hardware payback from 3-4 years to 5-6 years and raising funding pressure on cloud giants; if cloud giants stop increasing capex in an upcoming earnings season, the AI trade could correct sharply.Source
MSFTbullishmid-termMicrosoft launched its third-generation in-house AI chip Maia300, which is more efficient and will lower costs; although AI also challenges its traditional office software business model, the stock is near record highs and I think it can reach 550, and could break above 550 if the broad market cooperates.Source
METAbullishshort-termMeta refused to slow AI development and launched the Muse agent with subscription plans, and the stock rose 3.38% today; if it rises further, it has a chance to challenge the all-time high of 793 dollars, and the company has proven through earnings that its AI investments can make money, giving it investment value.Source
WFCbullishshort-termBased on fundamentals from the Interactive Brokers backend, Wells Fargo's Q3 main business revenue is expected to grow 4.1% year-on-year and EPS to rise 11.4%, showing improved profitability; with a good economy and stock market, big banks' earnings tomorrow are likely to still beat expectations.Source
NFLXbullishshort-termAfter Netflix stopped disclosing new subscriber numbers, the stock kept falling as the market trades incremental growth rather than existing assets, given a viewer ceiling and a lack of global hit shows; however, the decline is largely done with a TTM P/E of 22, making a rebound trade acceptable.Source
MUbearishChina's CXMT announced a smaller DDR5 memory, raising worries that Chinese entrants could start a price war and compress margins, making memory sentiment nervous and sending Micron lower; my Interactive Brokers public account now holds Micron as a losing position.Source

GeopoliticsOil & EnergyFed PolicyAI Capex

2026-10-091 video

2026-10-09

美股：马斯克把一个板块搞崩，华尔街连夜改报告，又耍了市场一回。【2026-10-09】

美股：马斯克把一个板块搞崩，华尔街连夜改报告，又耍了市场一回。【2026-10-09】

8 bull · 5 bear · 8 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ DAL JPM WFC C+12

SPYbullishmid-termThe S&P 500 has reclaimed its 5-day moving average with no sell signal, so it may grind higher and potentially reach 8000 points by year-end.Source
QQQbullishThe Nasdaq closed above its pre-breakout prior high with a small bullish candle, so it could still maintain an oscillating upward trend.Source
AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termThe four-year AI rally has produced many winners; capital must bet on AI to have a greater probability of winning. As long as the market resumes rising, fear toward AI will be replaced by greed.Source

Employmentpositive for stocksThe US economy is generally doing very well, with GDP growth around 2% and unemployment close to full employment.Source
ConsumerneutralThe US economy is strong overall, but the consumer sector is not performing well, with weak consumer confidence and durable-goods buying intentions.Source
DALbullishDelta Air Lines is not expensive, with a P/E of 10-13, and its slow profit growth matches its stock performance. The stock is relatively safe but lacks imagination, and should rebound going forward.Source
JPMbullishshort-termBig banks have good earnings and their reports can lift share prices on the day; the short-term downtrend in bank stocks like JPMorgan is likely to change after next week's earnings.Source
WFCbullishshort-termBig banks have good earnings and their reports can lift share prices on the day; the short-term downtrend in bank stocks like Wells Fargo is likely to change after next week's earnings.Source
Cbullishshort-termBig banks have good earnings and their reports can lift share prices on the day; the short-term downtrend in bank stocks like Citigroup is likely to change after next week's earnings.Source
ASMLneutrallong-termSemiconductor orders are ample and capacity is tight; as the absolute leader in lithography, ASML benefits at the source and has good growth in coming quarters, but it often guides conservatively after earnings, so its stock tends to be muted.Source
TSMneutrallong-termTSMC's Q3 revenue and full-year growth are strong, with gross margin held high; its capacity is the bottleneck for chip companies' growth and its industry position remains powerful. JPMorgan says it near-monopolizes advanced nodes and packaging, with strong earnings certainty.Source
BCEbearishlong-termStarlink obtained low-band licenses and can serve independently, so traditional telecom stocks face fiercer competition and possible traffic price cuts, making high profits and dividends hard to sustain; therefore the telecom plunge is not a buying opportunity, and the valuation model may be rebuilt.Source
TMUSbearishlong-termStarlink obtained low-band licenses and can serve independently, so traditional telecom stocks face fiercer competition and possible traffic price cuts, making high profits and dividends hard to sustain; therefore the telecom plunge is not a buying opportunity, and the valuation model may be rebuilt.Source
Tbearishlong-termStarlink obtained low-band licenses and can serve independently, so traditional telecom stocks face fiercer competition and possible traffic price cuts, making high profits and dividends hard to sustain; therefore the telecom plunge is not a buying opportunity, and the valuation model may be rebuilt.Source
TUbearishlong-termStarlink obtained low-band licenses and can serve independently, so traditional telecom stocks face fiercer competition and possible traffic price cuts, making high profits and dividends hard to sustain; therefore the telecom plunge is not a buying opportunity, and the valuation model may be rebuilt.Source
VZbearishlong-termStarlink obtained low-band licenses and can serve independently, so traditional telecom stocks face fiercer competition and possible traffic price cuts, making high profits and dividends hard to sustain; therefore the telecom plunge is not a buying opportunity, and the valuation model may be rebuilt.Source
SPCXneutralSpaceX's Starlink business is the company's cash cow and may become more profitable; the stock is in an uptrend but the rise is not smooth, mainly because valuation is very high and the float is large, implying potentially big swings.Source
AMTneutralStarlink's shift to ground services requires leasing base stations and towers, bringing new customers and revenue growth to tower companies; American Tower has a high dividend yield, looks decent, and can be put on the watchlist.Source
CCIneutralStarlink's shift to ground services requires leasing base stations and towers, bringing new customers and revenue growth to tower companies; Crown Castle has a high dividend yield, looks decent, and can be put on the watchlist.Source
PLTRneutralGoldman Sachs upgraded Palantir to buy with a target price of 230, mainly due to faster commercial customer growth and the importance of AI security; but after the breakout its valuation is even more outrageous, so prepare for high volatility.Source
CRCLneutralIn my public account, CRCL was among the top gainers today, but my position is still at a small loss and I am waiting to break even.Source

AI CapexEmploymentConsumer

2026-10-081 video

2026-10-08

US Stocks: White House Stock God Stock Purchase Update. [2026-10-08]

US Stocks: White House Stock God Stock Purchase Update. [2026-10-08]

4 bull · 2 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ MSFT MCD NVDA MU

SPYbullishmid-termThe S&P 500 is up 13% this year, slightly above the historical average and has completed its performance KPI. Even if it does not rise in the remaining quarter, its annual performance remains very good. As long as there is no sudden big bearish candle, there is still hope of reaching 8000 points within the year.Source
QQQneutralshort-termThe Nasdaq index closed at 27,193 after today's decline. Although below the September 22 high, it narrowly held the June 1 high, and the horizontal support level was not broken. The broader market still does not rule out the hope of continuing to rise, but risks are also increasing.Source
MSFTbullishAmong the many stocks Trump bought, the host is clearly bullish on Microsoft, saying Trump's purchase endorsement increases his confidence in MSFT.Source

MCDbullishlong-termMcDonald's revenue growth momentum is insufficient and it must spend heavily to subsidize franchisees, so earnings will lack explosive power and stay dormant for a long time. However, the stock price is not high and the dividend yield is 3.1%, relatively high among quality US companies, so one can bottom-fish even just to collect dividends.Source
OtherneutralSpaceX's bonds have a low investment grade and require high interest rates of 7% to 8% to borrow, so its stock also carries considerable risk. Equity investors may speculate on its imagination and hype, trading high, but pragmatic bond investors demand high rates to lend.Source
Consumerpositive for stocksDespite tariffs pushing up prices and a 40% year-on-year surge in gasoline prices squeezing low-income households, US consumption ability remains very strong, so the host believes consumer stocks will still rebound and recover at an appropriate time.Source
Valuationnegative for stocksOpenAI's revenue missed media expectations and its valuation exceeds $800 billion, while Anthropic is valued at $2 trillion although a research firm thinks it is worth at most $150 billion. The host believes that if these two large model companies go public with valuations above $1 trillion, they are indeed too expensive, and large AI models have not yet formed an effective business model with little user loyalty.Source
NVDAneutralThe host checked NVIDIA's financial report and found that the semiconductor leader's receivables turnover ratio is declining and the collection period is lengthening, meaning downstream payment days are increasing. The longer payment time for chip buyers indicates they are under significant cash flow pressure.Source
AI Capexnegative for stockslong-termAI infrastructure has contributed significantly to GDP and corporate profit growth, but the momentum behind cloud service providers' capital expenditure will decay sooner or later. If cloud giants suddenly say capex growth is pausing in a future earnings report, the AI rally will stop, triggering a painful adjustment; this is a major risk hidden danger for the current AI rally.Source
MUneutralshort-termMicron opened low and closed high yesterday but opened low and closed low today, with the rise not going smoothly, indicating bulls are unwilling to continue long. Combined with the risk of a strike at its Taiwan plant affecting HBM supply chain, the host is worried the price trend is not as smooth as before and is prone to inflection points and trend changes.Source

OtherConsumerValuationAI Capex

2026-10-071 video

2026-10-07

Will High Bond Yields Drain US Stocks? The Fed Meeting Minutes Are Here. [2026-10-07]

Will High Bond Yields Drain US Stocks? The Fed Meeting Minutes Are Here. [2026-10-07]

7 bull · 1 bear · 7 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ TSLA MU AMZN QCOM+1

SPYbullishshort-termAlthough the S&P 500 fell slightly, its daily candle closed as a small bullish candle with a lower shadow and the 5-day moving average is turning up; if an upward trend gradually forms, the bullish view can continue.Source
QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq closed a small bullish candle and held above its prior high for three consecutive sessions, suggesting the upside breakout may be valid and typically a round of inertial rally will begin.Source
Fed Policyneutralshort-termAlthough the minutes were hawkish and still projected another hike by year-end, recent softer jobs and inflation data plus the pre-election convention of no action in October mean the odds of an October hike are only 17.2%; policy is expected to stay stable this month.Source

Bonds & Ratesneutrallong-termCurrent long-end Treasury yields around 5.66% represent mean reversion rather than extreme levels; the stock-bond divergence is a major risk, but high rates do not necessarily crash stocks—if earnings growth outpaces rates, equities can hold up.Source
Valuationneutrallong-termThis earnings season S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow 27% YoY, far exceeding borrowing rates; with earnings surging alongside prices, P/E expansion is not that fast and bubble formation may be slower than investors fear.Source
SPYbullishlong-termThe S&P 500 has decent gains and lower drawdowns, making it a worthwhile target for ultra-long-term dollar-cost-averaging allocation; the host agrees with a viewer's suggestion.Source
QQQbullishlong-termThe Nasdaq 100 has decent gains and lower drawdowns, making it a worthwhile target for ultra-long-term dollar-cost-averaging allocation; the host agrees with a viewer's suggestion.Source
AI CapexneutralThe core factor for whether US stocks rise or fall is whether AI still has momentum, because index moves are driven by star stocks that are almost all highly AI-related.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksGlobal high rates could burst the AI bubble because big tech firms increasingly rely on debt to fund AI infrastructure expansion; high rates restrict financing and raise costs, so investors should beware of a bubble burst.Source
Otherpositive for stocksshort-termSpaceX (referred to as SPCX) is raising $40 billion, mostly via debt, to buy NVIDIA chips; its bonds are rated 3B with 30-year paper trading at an 8% yield. The stock remains above its moving averages in a bullish alignment and is technically bullish, though heavy cash burn and high rates could constrain the shares.Source
TSLAneutralTesla, like SpaceX, speculates on the distant future and prices in future good news; having held TSLA for a long time, the host reflects that one should not pay a high price for good news that cannot be realized within a year.Source
MUbullishlong-termMicron closed higher with a big bullish candle after a lower open; capacity is locked by orders with no industry inflection until 2027, so earnings remain good for a year, and trading volume ranks among the top three in the US, leaving room to rise; the host discloses holding MU in his public account, where it outperformed his other holdings.Source
AMZNbullishshort-termAmazon's trend has turned up with consecutive bullish candles; the threat from AI agents to ads is not severe and tech leaders can adapt. It is one of the safer dip-buying names, but rebound upside is limited with heavy resistance near 280.Source
QCOMneutralA viewer said Qualcomm is useless and should be sold; the host also says he has been looking for a chance to close this hard-to-trade small position, which discloses his Qualcomm holding.Source
IBMneutralIBM has closed lower for 16 straight days; the host cannot figure out what the main force is doing and merely hopes for a bullish candle, with no clear directional call.Source

Fed PolicyBonds & RatesValuationAI CapexOther

2026-10-061 video

2026-10-06

US Stocks: Midterm Election Surge Probability Released? Market Depends Entirely on Three Stocks. [2026-10-06]

US Stocks: Midterm Election Surge Probability Released? Market Depends Entirely on Three Stocks. [2026-10-06]

12 bull · 1 bear · 3 neutralYouTube

SPY QQQ MSFT CEG INTC NVDA+4

SPYbullishshort-termThe S&P 500 gapped up slightly and broke to a record high, holding firm throughout the day. The probability of further gains is greater than that of declines, and a slow upward trend may resume.Source
QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq led the market to a new high, making the upward trend more reliable because technology stocks are the main driver; the outlook remains optimistic.Source
Otherpositive for stocksmid-termIf Democrats sweep both chambers after the midterm election, it would limit the president's policy space and reduce policy black swans, favoring policy stability. Historical data shows US stocks mostly rise before midterms, so the overall impact on US equities is bullish.Source

Geopoliticspositive for stocksThe two black swans under Trump—tariffs and the Iran war—artificially caused major washouts during the US bull market. Such washouts are healthy and an important reason the market could rise so much; if Congress control changes, black swan risks will decline, benefiting stocks.Source
Cryptopositive for stocksmid-termIf Republicans control Congress, it could be favorable for cryptocurrencies because crypto-related legislation is not yet complete and still needs congressional action to advance.Source
Otherpositive for stocksThe widening US trade deficit is not a bad thing and may even be an indicator of a healthy economy; the deficit exports dollars, which then flow back into US stocks and bonds, forming a favorable cycle for the US.Source
Othernegative for stocksAnthropic is about to go public with a valuation as high as 2 trillion, which heavily overdrafts its future upside. The risk after listing is considerable and the outlook is not optimistic.Source
MSFTbullishshort-termMicrosoft controls the enterprise end-user entry point, integrating its own or partner models into coding or office software assistants with near-zero marginal cost and deeply binding enterprise data, making customer retention much easier than for other AI model companies; the stock is expected to reach its record high of 550.Source
Market Breadthpositive for stocksThe US broad index is highly tied to leading tech giants, while thousands of other stocks merely lag. In recent years, investors should trade core leaders and hold with institutions; as long as institutions keep clustering, one should not sell.Source
CEGneutralPower stocks are defensive utilities; electricity and water are rigid demand, making the industry relatively stable in the stock market. CEG, as a nuclear operator, signed a long-term power agreement with Google, and although the sector has pulled back, its defensive nature keeps it robust.Source
INTCneutralAlthough Musk's cooperation with TSMC on a super fab is a negative for Intel and the stock fell slightly, the impact is not major; Intel is expected to maintain a high-level range-bound pattern.Source
NVDAbullishlong-termJensen Huang said NVIDIA's revenue growth next year could reach 70%, and would be even higher if not for capacity constraints. Orders are secure, and with capacity fully booked, revenue and profit are predictable and certain.Source
TSMbullishshort-termTSMC benefits from the cooperation with Musk and has risen steadily long-term. Jensen Huang's NVIDIA revenue guidance implies TSMC's performance is solid, and with full capacity its revenue and profit are predictable; after a new high, another new high is expected, so holders should keep their shares.Source
MRVLbullishlong-termOptical module leader MRVL's potential market size could reach 400 billion by 2030, with revenue expected to grow tenfold; the semiconductor industry should not be underestimated, and with AI agent demand, a market bubble makes a trillion-dollar market cap not impossible.Source
MUbullishmid-termMicron is subject to a two-year buyback restriction from the CHIPS Act, but after it expires on December 9 the company plans to use all excess cash for repurchases. With abundant cash on hand, a large buyback program is expected, which is bullish for the stock.Source
TERneutralThe host holds Teradyne in his public account. The stock pulled back over 3% today, but its recent uptrend has been healthy, so the pullback is normal and not a major concern.Source

OtherGeopoliticsCryptoMarket Breadth

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