What 阳光财经 Sunny said in this video:
- SPYbullishshort-termThe S&P 500 fell slightly but held above the 5-day moving average, leaving the short-term trend intact; as long as no large bearish candle appears, the uptrend can continue, while a big red candle would trigger panic.Source
- QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq 100 fell 0.44%, capped by the 5-day moving average but supported by the 10-day moving average, so it still has some hope of maintaining its upward trend; unless a big bearish candle suddenly appears in the short term, staying stable is fine.Source
- Geopoliticsnegative for stocksWith the Saudi airport attacked by Houthis, security challenges at the Red Sea and Hormuz, and the Russia-Ukraine war continuing without even an energy-facility truce holding, geopolitical conditions in the Middle East and Eurasia have not improved but worsened, which is not good for financial markets.Source
- Oil & Energypositive for stocksmid-termDue to worsening Middle East tensions, fragile supply, and potential Hormuz disruption, oil is likely to rise rather than fall; Goldman's Brent target of $90 lacks conviction with spot at $106. If Brent breaks 115 and approaches 130, equities could face turbulence.Source
- Fed Policyneutrallong-termLong-term bond yields have risen sharply and corporate funding costs are high, which already has a tightening effect akin to the market hiking for the central bank, so the central bank can reduce the number of hikes; I expect about one hike this year and one next year.Source
- SOXXbullishmid-termThe Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gapped down 2.67% for a third straight day, but has mid/long-term moving average support from the 60-day and half-year lines; as the main AI sector it should not break down, and I guess it will stabilize near the half-year line around 12,178 before rising again.Source