What 阳光财经 Sunny said in this video:
- SPYbullishshort-termAlthough the S&P 500 fell slightly, its daily candle closed as a small bullish candle with a lower shadow and the 5-day moving average is turning up; if an upward trend gradually forms, the bullish view can continue.Source
- QQQbullishshort-termThe Nasdaq closed a small bullish candle and held above its prior high for three consecutive sessions, suggesting the upside breakout may be valid and typically a round of inertial rally will begin.Source
- Fed Policyneutralshort-termAlthough the minutes were hawkish and still projected another hike by year-end, recent softer jobs and inflation data plus the pre-election convention of no action in October mean the odds of an October hike are only 17.2%; policy is expected to stay stable this month.Source
- Bonds & Ratesneutrallong-termCurrent long-end Treasury yields around 5.66% represent mean reversion rather than extreme levels; the stock-bond divergence is a major risk, but high rates do not necessarily crash stocks—if earnings growth outpaces rates, equities can hold up.Source
- Valuationneutrallong-termThis earnings season S&P 500 earnings are forecast to grow 27% YoY, far exceeding borrowing rates; with earnings surging alongside prices, P/E expansion is not that fast and bubble formation may be slower than investors fear.Source
- SPYbullishlong-termThe S&P 500 has decent gains and lower drawdowns, making it a worthwhile target for ultra-long-term dollar-cost-averaging allocation; the host agrees with a viewer's suggestion.Source
- QQQbullishlong-termThe Nasdaq 100 has decent gains and lower drawdowns, making it a worthwhile target for ultra-long-term dollar-cost-averaging allocation; the host agrees with a viewer's suggestion.Source