What 阳光财经 Sunny said in this video:
- SPYneutralmid-termThe host believes the S&P 500 faces resistance from the 20-day MA and support from the 60-day MA, forming a trendless oscillation; it has been range-bound since the last new high with no new direction. A decline would require major bearish news, while gains are also difficult because the index has already exceeded the average annualized return this year; simply staying stable for the rest of the year would make it a strong year.Source
- QQQneutralThe host believes the Nasdaq index rose 1.11% today, stabilizing after a short-term decline, but remains within a wide oscillation framework with no smooth uptrend; it has half-year line support on declines, and if tech stocks face sudden major bearish news it could break below the half-year line. Without such news, it would maintain high-level oscillation until the Chinese New Year, potentially reducing Q4 money-making opportunities.Source
- Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe host expects next week's Fed meeting to keep rates unchanged, with an 82.8% probability of holding; due to reluctance to cause market turmoil before midterms and historical patterns, the Fed will not aggressively change rates in October, delaying the year's one hike to December, when the hike probability rises to 90.2%.Source
- CRWVneutralThe host notes that an AI company, CRWV, is also about to fall to junk grade, implying its credit condition is near junk.Source
- Bonds & RatesneutralThe host believes French debt risk is not contagious for now; after selling French bonds, funds bought German bonds for safety, showing the market is shorting France rather than Europe, so it is unlikely to trigger a new European debt crisis.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termThe host expects that even if a European debt crisis returns, US stocks are unlikely to see a fundamental reversal; they may pull back sharply in the short term if the crisis erupts, but will ultimately show strong resilience, emerge from the crisis, and make new highs.Source