Every clear bullish/bearish call, checked against price and the SPY benchmark over the selected window
17 scored5 with positive excessMedian avg excess −0.5%Median hit rate 36.4%Checked through the 11/13 close (ET)
| YouTuber | Samples? | Hit rate vs SPY? | Avg excess? | Calibration? | Clarity? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 45.5% | +2.1% | +3.3% | 25.4% | |
| 38 | 44.7% | +2.0% | +34.3% | 13.4% | |
| 64 | 45.3% | +0.6% | −10.7% | 39.8% | |
| 42 | 35.7% | +0.2% | −7.5% | 31.8% | |
| 33 | 45.5% | +0.1% | +4.5% | 33.0% | |
| 124 | 36.3% | −0.0% | −22.7% | 15.5% | |
| 81 | 44.4% | −0.0% | +4.5% | 37.0% | |
| 106 | 36.8% | −0.4% | +5.6% | 21.7% | |
| 44 | 36.4% | −0.5% | +0.8% | 38.6% | |
| 55 | 32.7% | −0.6% | −7.4% | 39.9% | |
| 153 | 34.6% | −0.8% | +3.7% | 28.2% | |
| 153 | 38.6% | −1.1% | −11.8% | 20.0% | |
| 39 | 41.0% | −1.1% | −23.2% | 15.2% | |
| 273 | 29.3% | −1.4% | +7.4% | 34.6% | |
| 177 | 36.2% | −1.5% | −6.6% | 31.9% | |
| 43 | 27.9% | −1.9% | −25.3% | 14.4% | |
| 142 | 33.8% | −2.2% | −1.9% | 19.1% | |
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Only clear bullish/bearish calls on a specific ticker count. The baseline is the close on the call's trading day; the outcome is settled at the close 5 trading days later. All returns use adjusted prices (splits are not gains or losses).
Excess return = directional return − the SPY benchmark in the same direction. For a bullish call: ticker gain − SPY gain; bearish calls are mirrored as shorts. A "hit" requires the right direction and beating the benchmark.
Calibration = hit rate of high-conviction calls minus hit rate of regular calls (a positive value means strong convictions really do land better; hidden when either side lacks samples). Clarity = share of a YouTuber's opinions that are judgeable at all.
No score below 30 samples. This is a post-hoc check on public statements — not a judgement of anyone's skill, and it says nothing about what happens next.