Joseph Carlson After Hours · YouTuber updates · US Stock Watch

Joseph Carlson After Hours

@JosephCarlsonAfterHours9 videosEnglish channel

2026-11-111 video

2026-11-11

5 Quality Stocks To Buy On A Huge Dip

5 Quality Stocks To Buy On A Huge Dip

6 bull · 0 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

NVDA FICO UBER NFLX META COST+1

AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termThe host credits neo-cloud earnings and ongoing capex plans with lifting the market, framing the AI build-out as unstoppable.Source
NVDAbullishmid-termThe host believes the 22% drop overstates the Jensen scandal's impact, and at a 12.6 forward PE NVIDIA is one of the cheapest names in the ecosystem — a good buy now, though he personally abstains due to portfolio concentration.Source
FICObullishlong-termThe host believes FICO's 55% year-to-date fall from $2,400 to $700 overshot the deterioration in its moat; if it retains most market share versus VantageScore, the stock likely goes back past $1,000.Source

AI Capex

2026-11-091 video

2026-11-09

The Jensen Scandal Is Much Worse Than It Looks

The Jensen Scandal Is Much Worse Than It Looks

2 bull · 2 bear · 0 neutralYouTube

Geopoliticsnegative for stocksmid-termWith Democrats taking control of Congress, the scandal gives them fresh ammunition; the host expects massive investigations and repeated Congressional testimony from Jensen Huang.Source
NVDAbullishshort-termWith NVIDIA already down from $240 to $176, the host sees limited further downside and expects investors to treat the scandal-driven dip as a buying opportunity.Source
AI Capexnegative for stocksmid-termThe scandal could become a catalyst for further regulations, restrictions, and investigations, creating overhang and potentially slowing the entire AI industry.Source

GeopoliticsAI Capex

2026-11-041 video

2026-11-04

The Stock Market Rotation Has Begun

The Stock Market Rotation Has Begun

10 bull · 1 bear · 4 neutralYouTube

ASML AMZN MSFT META MA NFLX+7

Market Breadthpositive for stocksmid-termThe host argues money is rotating out of semiconductor bottleneck stocks into Big Tech and software companies with enduring customer relationships, a trend he expects to persist despite ebbs and flows.Source
ASMLneutralshort-termASML is the host's only bottleneck holding; it has done incredibly well this year but is the sole red position today, which he finds predictable amid the rotation.Source
AMZNbullishlong-termAmazon is a key beneficiary of the rotation; its recurring AWS revenue and customer relationships give it an enduring business model, and the market is wrong to price its capex as low-return.Source

MSFTbullishmid-termMicrosoft is benefiting from the rotation, up over 6% on the day, and the host views Big Tech's ability to monetize its customer base as underestimated.Source
METAneutralshort-termMeta is up only marginally on the day and is being rewarded less than peers like Microsoft in the current rotation.Source
MAbullishlong-termMastercard, the host's largest position, is up 3% and beating major indices, exemplifying the enduring business models he favors over bottleneck stocks.Source
NFLXneutralmid-termNetflix almost triggered his $10,000 buy near $60 but is now bouncing; the host keeps it on watch to see how it fares through year-end.Source
MCOneutralmid-termThe host believes Moody's is trading around its fair value, though it still rose nearly 5% on the day; no directional call beyond that.Source
COSTbullishlong-termCostco is overlooked because of its high multiple, yet it is up 21% year-to-date and beating both major indices — crushing it this year.Source
TXRHbullishshort-termTexas Roadhouse reports earnings tomorrow, is being bid up into the print, and the host expects great results.Source
MUbearishmid-termMemory bottleneck stocks like Micron and Sandisk are making astronomical money now, but their demand historically cools off in cycles, and the host expects investors to increasingly question the bottleneck trade.Source
GOOGLbullishlong-termThe host calls it absurd to think Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon cannot monetize their massive customer connections, and says pricing their capex as low-return is crazy since they are already showing strong monetization.Source
DUOLbullishlong-termThe host holds a ~$41,000 Duolingo position and argues the AI-disruption bears are wrong: DAU growth accelerated to 29%, paid subs up 14%, product improved by folding video calls into Super, and a cash-rich balance sheet adds flexibility.Source
UBERbullishlong-termUber's earnings are strong across the board — 20% gross bookings growth with demand exceeding supply — and the host views AVs as expanding the market rather than a threat, expecting the stock to outperform over the next couple of years.Source
AI Capexpositive for stocksmid-termDemocratic midterm wins threaten data-center construction, but the host argues this makes existing Big Tech data centers scarcer and more valuable, hurting new entrants like NeoClouds while benefiting incumbents — not bearish for his holdings.Source

Market BreadthAI Capex

2026-11-021 video

2026-11-02

Here's My Price Target Of Every Holding

Here's My Price Target Of Every Holding

13 bull · 1 bear · 13 neutralYouTube

V MA AMZN GOOGL META SPGI+10

ValuationneutralHe distinguishes the market trading value from intrinsic worth and says investors should form their own fair-value estimate using moat, growth, competition, and discounted cash flow judgments; he gives no specific asset direction here.Source
VneutralHe describes Visa as the only company whose financial metrics come close to Mastercard, but gives no price direction or target.Source
MAneutralHe views Mastercard as an exceptional business but says the shares are back near fair value, with only about 6% upside to a roughly 700 fair value; his conclusion is a hold rather than a clear bullish or bearish call.Source

Otherneutralshort-termHe characterizes the post-earnings weekly swings as short-term noise driven by emotion and says investors should not factor them into decisions; he makes no market-direction call.Source
AMZNbullishlong-termHe treats the post-earnings selloff as short-term noise and sees roughly 40% upside to a 350 fair value; strong growth, AWS expansion, and deliberate capital spending support his long-term value case.Source
GOOGLbullishHe sees Google as undervalued with a 350 fair value and more than 20% upside; however, he says ad revenue must withstand AI agents, making the story more challenged than Amazon's.Source
OtherneutralHe says his portfolio is already highly concentrated in a few holdings, so even though he views Amazon and Google as undervalued, new money is better diversified into other opportunities; this is a position-sizing judgment, not a price-direction call.Source
METAbullishlong-termHe argues that Meta's new agentic tool adoption, cash-flow generation, and willingness to spend on capital expenditures strengthen its future position; at an 850 fair value, he sees about 40% upside.Source
SPGIbullishHe puts S&P Global's fair value near 550, implying about 16% upside; if fears that agentic technology will hurt the business fade, he expects the valuation multiple to expand.Source
Otherpositive for stocksHe expects concern that agentic technology will crush S&P Global's business to fade, allowing the valuation multiple to expand; this is a view on AI-disruption fears without a standalone price or timing target.Source
MSFTbullishHe still sees Microsoft as a high-quality, slightly undervalued company, but a 550 fair value gives only about 6% to 7% upside; a 25 forward earnings multiple and low free cash flow yield make it close to fair value.Source
ASMLbullishHe believes ASML has an almost impossible-to-replicate moat and unique demand, so he raises fair value above the mathematical valuation; the roughly 1,800 target leaves some upside but not a large discount.Source
COSTbearishHe views Costco as extremely resilient but says the roughly 1,000 current price is about 22% above an 800 fair value; the high earnings multiple could compress if any weakness appears.Source
NFLXbullishlong-termHe argues Netflix is far below fair value and could be repriced if a few quarters rebuild confidence in the strategy, with the multiple moving from 17 to 25; he also warns that continued deceleration could push the stock lower.Source
InflationneutralHe acknowledges concern about beef pricing and commodity inflation, but believes the restaurant company can navigate it better than competitors, with rising weekly sales showing strong traffic and value; he does not call the direction of inflation itself.Source
TXRHbullishHe believes strong traffic growth and rising weekly sales show Texas Roadhouse can handle beef-cost and commodity-inflation pressure better than competitors; at the roughly 200 fair value, the shares are only slightly undervalued with no large disconnect.Source
MCOneutralHe says Moody's remains strong, but a 28 forward earnings multiple has closed the valuation gap and the shares are around fair value; he is holding off on adding rather than making a clear directional call.Source
DUOLneutralshort-termHe lowered the fair value because growth slowed and the company is trading monetization for user growth, but earnings are imminent and could move the estimate either way; the 200 reference is only a cautious marker, not a clear directional call.Source
UBERbullishshort-termHe sees roughly one-third upside based on a 90 fair value versus the current 66 price and says the shares offer good value; because earnings are due this week, he considers waiting for the report the safer move before adding.Source
Earningsneutralshort-termHe says imminent earnings can materially change fair value and the stock could rise or fall; waiting for the report is therefore the safer move rather than making a directional call.Source
CARTneutralHe says the acquisition of a grocery-delivery platform would give the buyer an avenue into retail and be a major benefit to DoorDash; he gives no price-direction call on the acquired company itself.Source
DASHbullishlong-termHe argues short-term valuation metrics miss the company's land-grab strategy, and the grocery-delivery acquisition can expand the network from restaurants into retail and later improve margins; at a 250 fair value he sees about one-third upside.Source
Valuationpositive for stocksAfter weighting each company's fair value by position size, he judges the overall portfolio to be about 17% undervalued; if all holdings converge on fair value, the portfolio would rise to roughly 1.7 million dollars.Source
Otherneutrallong-termHe uses Andy Jassy's point that most technology spending remains on premises to frame cloud migration as a long-term secular trend similar to the shift from cash to digital payments for Visa and Mastercard; this supports the AWS runway but is not a specific price call.Source
AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termHe rejects the idea that companies stopped heavy token use, saying businesses are using AI more than ever, with net retention and customer usage showing demand still grows every year; that supports continued compute and capital spending.Source
OtherneutralHe does not plan to buy the IPO immediately, but rejects the idea that slower growth and lower efficiency mean the business is in trouble, citing usage, customer growth, net retention, and hard-to-replace industry-standard status; this is a positive company-quality view without a tradable price direction.Source
OtherneutralUsing the Linux and Microsoft analogy, he says open-weight models will pressure pricing and expansion but will not fully replace leading AI providers; he gives no price direction.Source

ValuationOtherInflationEarningsAI Capex

2026-10-291 video

2026-10-29

Google Stock Is In Trouble

Google Stock Is In Trouble

6 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

GOOGL MA V AXP MSFT DASH

GOOGLneutralmid-termNear term, the host sees no need to rush to buy, expecting the AI-erodes-search narrative to pressure the stock for a couple of quarters, maybe a year, with no quick rebound.Source
GOOGLbullishlong-termThe host discloses a massive position he will keep holding, arguing the search deceleration is mostly FX and World Cup comps while cloud grows over 100% and the stock trades around 19x forward earnings.Source
MAbullishlong-termThe host discloses Mastercard as his largest position at $212,000, now at an all-time high, and says the bear case around government payment systems displacing cards has not come to fruition.Source

2026-10-261 video

2026-10-26

Anthropic Just Released Their Financials… The Numbers Are Insane

Anthropic Just Released Their Financials… The Numbers Are Insane

5 bull · 0 bear · 2 neutralYouTube

Otherpositive for stocksAnthropic's S-1 shows breathtaking revenue growth, massive operating leverage, and its first positive operating quarter; the host sees a very healthy situation with no red flags.Source
OtherneutralAt a $2 trillion valuation, Anthropic would need $128B FCF and $644B revenue to justify, which is too aggressive; the host would not personally invest on those assumptions, though he thinks a $1 trillion valuation makes sense.Source
MSFTbullishMicrosoft's buyouts reflect AI efficiency; the company remains as or more productive with fewer expenses, making it a more attractive and better business.Source

OtherAI Capex

2026-10-211 video

2026-10-21

I'm Buying More Of This Stock Tomorrow

I'm Buying More Of This Stock Tomorrow

4 bull · 0 bear · 1 neutralYouTube

NFLXbullishlong-termNetflix's fundamentals are strong with record buybacks and steady ~20% EPS growth ex-WBD payout; the market's sole focus on revenue deceleration is temporary.Source
Consumerneutralmid-termYouTube viewership growth does not come at Netflix's expense; the two serve different purposes and Netflix churn actually declined while revenue grew.Source
NFLXbullishlong-termDownside is limited at an 18x forward PE and 4% FCF yield with pessimism priced in; if Netflix improves content, the stock could soar.Source

Consumer

2026-10-191 video

2026-10-19

This Stock Is Undervalued

This Stock Is Undervalued

5 bull · 0 bear · 6 neutralYouTube

SPCX AMZN NFLX ASML META TSLA+2

OtherneutralHost briefly mentions CoreWeave and asks what is going on with it, but offers no stance or investment view.Source
SPCXneutralHost views SpaceX (SPCX) as a great, real company with the connectivity/Starlink business being the most bullish segment, but sees the opportunity cost as too high at a $2.56 trillion market cap on $40-50 billion revenue versus Amazon's much larger revenue and cloud business moat, so he prefers allocating to Amazon. If forced to choose between Tesla and SpaceX, he would pick SpaceX for its more unique, defensible product and larger technological moat with less competition.Source
AMZNbullishHost sees AMZN as a similar company to SpaceX at a roughly comparable valuation, but with $775 billion trailing revenue and its cloud business alone at $148 billion—three times SpaceX's hypothetical revenue—and a deeper moat, so he prefers allocating his dollar to Amazon over SpaceX.Source

NFLXbullishlong-termHost is actively bullish on NFLX and invested, with it as his 8th largest position despite a 45% drawdown. He notes the 19 forward P/E is near 2022 lows but the business remains strong and management reaffirmed full-year guidance, so he believes it will be rerated to a 25 P/E over time, implying upside.Source
ASMLbullishHost is a proud owner of ASML and calls it one of his favorite portfolio holdings. After management's cautious 2026 guidance triggered a 10% sell-off despite strong earnings, he viewed it as a short-term overreaction and bought more below $700, boosting his gains.Source
AI CapexneutralHost criticizes Brad Gerstner for painting a bullish AI view on TV while actively selling in his largest hedge fund (15x the size of his long-only fund), calling the contradictory messaging super lame; he argues it would have been acceptable if Gerstner honestly said he cut exposure due to difficult short-term valuations.Source
METAbullishHost says Meta's monetization power is strong with ad impressions up 14% Y/Y, average ad price up 12%, and total ad revenue up 27%. Although he expects Meta to raise CapEx guidance again and potentially spook investors, he believes the stock is well worth holding through the CapEx cycle.Source
TSLAneutralHost is not interested in Tesla mainly due to its 154 forward P/E despite flat revenue, declining deliveries, and weak net income/free cash flow. He sees the robotaxi rollout as slow and competitive, and the new Roadster demo lacking commercial application, so he will not buy the stock; if forced to choose, he would pick SpaceX over Tesla.Source
EarningsneutralHost notes the second week of earnings season is ramping up, with 23-25% of his weighted holdings reporting this week and about 55% next week, making next week the biggest week in the market and huge.Source
MCObullishlong-termHost believes Moody's (MCO) remains one of the best companies in the market and is currently a particularly strong investment. It has proprietary data integrated via APIs, is more predictable than NFLX, META, or TSLA, and looking out 10 years should still be in a great position with attractive returns.Source
DISneutralHost names ESPN, owned by Disney, as the fail of the week for fully embracing gambling after previously opposing it. He notes that large media companies taking huge gambling sponsorship money naturally shield sponsors from critical journalism, and warns that if a family-friendly brand like Disney accepts gambling, any company will.Source

OtherAI CapexEarnings

2026-10-121 video

2026-10-12

The Riskiest Earnings Season So Far

The Riskiest Earnings Season So Far

4 bull · 0 bear · 10 neutralYouTube

SPY ASML NVDA AMD TSM JPM+3

Earningsneutralshort-termThe host believes this Q3 earnings season is especially important, with extraordinary growth expectations heavily reliant on a few AI and energy companies, and that earnings will determine the market's direction; unlike typical seasons, this one is genuinely pivotal.Source
SPYneutralThe host notes that although rising bond yields should pressure the market, the S&P 500 has been resistant and is trending toward all-time highs because rapid earnings growth makes investors forgiving of lower starting yields, but he gives no explicit direction on the SPY ETF.Source
Bonds & RatesneutralThe host notes rising bond and Treasury yields would typically push stocks down, but the market has been resistant because rapid corporate earnings growth makes investors more forgiving of lower starting yields; he states no direction on yields themselves.Source

GeopoliticsneutralThe host says the earnings growth is almost all AI-driven, with energy and materials growth to a lesser extent due to geopolitics, but states no directional view on geopolitics or related sector prices.Source
AI CapexneutralThe host stresses AI is not just a buzzword but the core driver of earnings growth, with tech and AI companies contributing the vast majority of S&P 500 earnings growth; he would not be surprised if 70% to 80% of growth is attributable to tech and AI.Source
Market BreadthneutralThe host notes a bifurcated market where earnings are concentrated in a smaller number of tech and energy companies, while sectors like consumer staples, financials and utilities barely grow, highlighting investor concern over AI dependence, but gives no market direction.Source
ASMLbullishlong-termHost holds a large ASML position and believes its lithography monopoly will widen over the next decade, supported by high-NA EUV machines and growing installed-base management revenue; despite rich valuation and high near-term expectations, he remains fully invested for the long term.Source
NVDAneutralThe host notes Nvidia, like AMD, is a chip designer fulfilling overall AI demand and is at the top of the food chain, but states no directional view on its stock.Source
AMDneutralThe host notes AMD, like Nvidia, is a chip designer fulfilling overall AI demand and is at the top of the food chain, but states no directional view on its stock.Source
TSMbullishlong-termTSM shares the AI-demand bull case with ASML; regardless of which chip designer wins, TSM is at the top of the food chain, is reasonably valued with lower expectations, and the host expects great earnings and no reason for investors to sell.Source
JPMbullishshort-termThe host is very bullish on JPMorgan, calling it one of the best companies in the market with solid deposit, net interest income and CET1 metrics; although expensive on price-to-book, it is cheap as a digital tech bank, and he expects good earnings and regrets having sold.Source
UNHneutralThe host decides to stay out of UnitedHealth Group because he dislikes the insurance business, notes customers hate the company and regulatory risks are high, and questions why insurers earn higher margins than providers, but he states no directional price view.Source
DPZneutralThe host is not super bullish on Domino's, arguing third-party delivery platforms eroded its unique in-house delivery advantage, downgrading its operations in the delivery era and reducing his excitement to own it, though he gives no explicit price direction.Source
METAbullishWith the release of a new frontier model codenamed watermelon, Meta now leads in AI with a true frontier model and a personalized agent; the host has become more bullish, believing the wide-moat company remains undervalued and deserves multiple expansion.Source

EarningsBonds & RatesGeopoliticsAI CapexMarket Breadth

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