What 阳光财经 Sunny said in this video:
- SPYneutralThe S&P 500 rose today but remains in a range-bound consolidation on the daily chart; year-to-date gains are enough that bulls struggle to push further, while the lack of major bearish news leaves bears without a breakthrough, so the market is expected to lack directional choice before Wednesday's Fed decision.Source
- QQQneutralThe Nasdaq rose today, but neither the close nor the high reclaimed the half-year line, leaving the daily structure weak; if it can stand above the half-year line in coming days, the downward momentum may halt, but from a mid-term view it remains range-bound with no clear direction.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksshort-termThe Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting to avoid midterm election impact; after the Nov 3 election, the probability of a hike at the next meeting will rise sharply. Based on market expectations, Warsh's post-meeting remarks are expected to remain hawkish, with inflation still the keyword. Across four major central banks, developed economies remain in a hiking cycle; whoever stops hiking or turns dovish first will see their currency weaken, and when the Fed tightens, other freely convertible economies can only follow.Source
- Othernegative for stockslong-termFiat currency rate hikes are negative for non-interest-bearing gold and silver; gold has kept correcting this year and barely held the $4,000 level. If it falls another $200-300, a severe head-and-shoulders top would form and short pressure would build, with bulls defending $4,000. Against a hiking backdrop, resuming a bull market is difficult.Source
- Oil & Energypositive for stockslong-termOil broke to a new high since the Iran war at $115.98, opening further upside potential; US-Iran relations are likely to keep conflicting with the issue unresolved, keeping oil elevated possibly into 2027, and higher oil would only bring a more hawkish Fed.Source
- AMZNbullishshort-termIf Anthropic's IPO is valued at $2 trillion, Amazon, as the largest external shareholder with a 15%-20% stake, would reap over $100 billion in investment gains; the listing also secures Anthropic's outstanding commercial orders, benefiting Amazon and other cloud giants.Source