- CRWVbearishCoreWeave's revenue is growing quickly, but every profitability metric is terrible; adjusted EBITDA adds back real recurring costs like depreciation and interest, so the business is actually losing hundreds of millions per quarter. It is rapidly leveraging up, has about $10B of net debt due within a year with no profits, insiders are selling heavily, and at 10x sales it is significantly overvalued and full of red flags. I remain very bearish.Source
- IRENbearishIREN has a much better balance sheet than peers, but it is still a very expensive stock today. The host views neoclouds as lacking long-term moats and more like commodities, so he is not interested in owning it; stance is negative/overvalued.Source
- NBISneutralNBIS has probably the best balance sheet, growth, and cash flows of the entire neocloud group, but investors are leaving the sector in sympathy with CoreWeave's weakness. The host is not interested in owning it and gives no price direction.Source
- OtherneutralThe host does not think neoclouds are necessarily high-quality businesses with long-term moats; longer term he thinks they are largely commodities, even though they currently benefit from GPU rental supply-demand dynamics. He is not interested in owning any of them and gives no sector price direction.Source
- AMZNneutralThe host cites AWS's CEO saying demand is massive and enterprises are seeing positive ROI. Because GPU demand far exceeds supply, Amazon has raised reserved GPU prices and will most likely continue investing significant capital in AI infrastructure. No stock direction is given.Source
- ASMLneutralASML's management says the AI build-out remains very robust, supply shortages across advanced logic and memory nodes are increasing, demand signals are strengthening, and customers are placing orders out to 2029 and 2030. The host uses this to support his view that the AI build-out will continue, but gives no direction on ASML's stock.Source
- TSMneutralTSMC's management says AI demand is extremely robust and getting higher, with no sign of slowdown and demand still far above its capability to supply. The host uses this to argue AI adoption is continuing, but states no direction on TSM's stock.Source
- OtherneutralAlthough Anthropic's and OpenAI's ARR growth has decelerated, stalled over the summer and fell short of expectations, the host argues this is not a suggestion that AI adoption is slowing. Token volumes are up almost 4x year to date, while token spending is flat only because token costs are declining.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stocksThe host believes AI demand is still very real and strong, enterprises are seeing positive ROI, adoption continues and token usage is skyrocketing. Neocloud financing struggles and model-lab revenue decelerations do not mean the AI build-out will slow. Even if those neoclouds fail, hyperscalers and clouds will most likely continue capturing growth and spending on capex, and AI infrastructure still needs to be built as demand outstrips supply. Therefore, the broad AI sell-off does not make sense and will create opportunities if it continues; stance is bullish on the AI build-out.Source
