What Zac美股笔记 said in this video:
- ASMLbullishshort-termASML fell nearly 7% and has broken the defensive level mentioned in the host's video two days ago; if it breaks the previous low he had planned to stop out. However, he disclosed that he had already added to his position earlier today when the drop was smaller, and he has not considered clearing or stop-loss yet, because the decline is not due to ASML's own fundamentals but purely dragged down by the broader market.Source
- MCDneutralThe host recommended McDonald's two weeks ago and the stock has performed well, but he stresses that this does not mean McDonald's or other consumer stocks will do well in the future, and he remains cautious on the outlook.Source
- METAneutralThe host views META as the biggest drag on today's market crash. Meta's revenue and profit still grew, but rising capex pushed free cash flow negative, and management did not provide a specific capex number for next year, only saying it would increase, which alarmed institutions and triggered selling. He also notes the earnings report itself was actually not bad and will do a separate valuation analysis.Source
- QQQbullishlong-termThe Nasdaq is down about 2.9% today and made a new low below Friday's low, but has not yet effectively broken the trend prior low of 25,802. A close below 25,802 would break the pattern of higher highs and higher lows, opening further downside toward the 150-day moving average near 25,500 and the 200-day moving average near 25,000. Nonetheless, the host's strategy is to keep averaging into weakness and go all-in when the CNN Fear & Greed Index reaches single digits, and he views the short-term drop as unimportant versus the long-term uptrend in US equities, so he will not clear positions.Source
- Recession Riskpositive for stockslong-termThe host estimates it is almost certain that US stocks will not enter a bear market, with the maximum decline being about 20%; a true bear market would require a real black swan, whereas current issues like a US-Iran war, oil prices, and rate hikes are not black swans. Over a longer horizon he views the current drop as no big deal and urges viewers not to clear their positions, saying they will forget the pain by next month.Source