What Meet Kevin said in this video:
- Othernegative for stocksmid-termWith 50% of Canadian loan originations in ARMs, rate hikes have created an affordability crisis forcing people out of homes, pushing prices down as supply rises.Source
- Fed Policynegative for stocksmid-termThe host expects another mortgage-rate or Fed rate hike by year-end, with the 10-year Treasury rising again after Canada's preemptive hike.Source
- Otherneutrallong-termUS ARM share is only ~10-11% of applications, a fraction of Canada's 50% and of 2003-2006 levels, so no 2008-style crash, though real estate is not attractive right now.Source
- Employmentnegative for stockslong-termThe host sees a labor-market rollover as AI takes jobs as more likely than a housing crash, which would force interest rates to plummet to bail out employment.Source
- Otherpositive for stocksmid-termThe host discloses buying a property for $875K in a $1.2-1.3M neighborhood, expecting $200K-$300K of equity after an $80K fix-up, insulated even if prices fall 20-30%.Source
- Othernegative for stocksmid-termMarkets with heavy new construction and vacation-home buying, like Texas and Florida, are still falling knives and carry real risk for buyers now.Source
- Otherpositive for stockslong-termRepeating a year-long call, the host says Manhattan is a great place to buy because punitive building policies will restrict supply and drive prices up, not down.Source