What TradingKey 美股財經 said in this video:
- Valuationnegative for stockslong-termOpenAI's trillion-dollar valuation rests on the assumption that enterprises will keep paying high prices for flagship model calls. After cheap small models like Jev divert routine judgment tasks, the share of high-end model calls drops; revenue growth may fail to outpace the growth in AI capex, loosening the foundation of its valuation.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stockslong-termDriven by the Jevons paradox, cheap small models sharply reduce the cost per AI inference, but cause the total number of calls to explode dozens or even hundreds of times. Overall AI compute volume and capex demand will expand crazily, and chip and cloud giants will capture the volume dividend. However, if compute savings outpace the creation of new applications, hardware demand will still face adjustment.Source
- NVDAbullishlong-termNVIDIA sells computing platforms. Although small models reduce the cost per call, the Jevons paradox causes total inference calls to explode; as long as total demand growth outpaces the decline in per-call cost, hardware computing demand will continue expanding rapidly, and NVIDIA will benefit from the surge in total compute volume.Source
- AVGObullishlong-termBroadcom provides custom chips and high-speed networking. As small models drive a surge in total compute volume, demand for chips and networking will keep growing with the overall expansion of compute, allowing Broadcom to capture the dividend from surging compute volume.Source
- AMDbullishlong-termAMD is seizing the inference market. As cheap small models dramatically increase the number of inference calls, overall inference compute demand expands, and AMD will benefit from the growth of the inference market.Source
- Valuationnegative for stockslong-termAnthropic's valuation has been pushed to nearly $2 trillion. Although its annualized revenue is growing rapidly, its compute spending is growing even faster. After small models divert tasks, the price and gross margin of flagship models come under pressure; if capex growth continues to outpace revenue growth, its high valuation will be hard to sustain.Source