What 视野环球财经 said in this video:
- ValuationneutralThe market will again face a tough tug-of-war between rising rates discounting DCF valuations and upward EPS revisions lifting valuations; the jump in Treasury yields today was very sudden.Source
- MSFTbullishmid-termMicrosoft is the host's largest holding; despite a weekly RSI top divergence, low volume, and strong resistance at 514—with a potential drop toward 487 if the market turns down—he still expects the high point to reach above 600, believing the technicals need to consolidate first.Source
- MCDbearishlong-termMcDonald's fell to a four-year low after a Q3 US business warning and sharply decelerating growth; although weekly and monthly indicators are oversold, the decline is fast and fundamentals are spiraling like Nike, so one should not catch the falling knife or treat it as a V-shaped reversal before it fully stops falling and consolidates; holders can only wait for business stabilization.Source
- Inflationpositive for stocksIn the current macro environment inflation is rising, income growth has not improved, oil and living costs are high, and mortgage rates are above 7%, so consumers must cut spending, making it hard for restaurant companies to pass on price increases and pressuring margins.Source
- AVGObullishshort-termBroadcom faces a confidence risk from China SASAC's investigation into switch penetration, but not a major earnings risk, because mainland/HK revenue mostly comes from foundry exports rather than end-user demand; as long as high-growth expectations are not cut, before breaking 324 it is a good, safe buy point at the lower bound of forward valuation with institutions still holding, but a break below 324 means institutions are not defending and one should avoid risk, with sell-side EPS cuts lagging.Source
- COSTneutralshort-termCostco's pre-earnings options imply a move of about 905 ±32; its valuation stays high due to pricing power. As long as it does not break 867 and institutions do not sell, the high valuation remains reasonable and the stock may stay elevated after earnings, but a break below 867 would trigger mean reversion toward below 750, with strong overhead resistance and a narrow pre-earnings window making it unsuitable to act before the report.Source