What NaNa说美股 said in this video:
- InflationneutralAugust core PCE rose 3% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis changed methodology for items such as portfolio management services, lowering core PCE YoY by about 0.3pp. Therefore the improvement should not be read as a sudden real cooling of inflation; actual disinflation is less impressive than the headline.Source
- AI CapexneutralQ2 GDP was finally revised to 2.2%, above expectations and the prior 1.5%; consumption and AI infrastructure investment continue to support the US economy.Source
- ConsumerneutralUS consumer spending rose 0.9% MoM in August, and Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2%; consumption and AI infrastructure investment continue to support the economy, while rising stock wealth has boosted household financial assets and consumption. However, if US stocks decline and the wealth effect fades, the resilience of consumption will be tested.Source
- Employmentneutralshort-termThe market is focused on Friday's nonfarm payrolls; economists expect September nonfarm additions of 90k, roughly in line with the 90k ADP print. If the data is in line, the market reaction will likely be muted, and only a clear miss or beat will trigger volatility.Source
- Fed PolicyneutralBesides energy shocks, the host notes that Fed Chair Warsh removed the forward guidance markets had grown accustomed to over decades, leaving markets without a policy anchor; uncertainty in pricing the future inflation path and the Fed's reaction function is one reason bond volatility has risen and long-end Treasury swings amplified.Source
- Bonds & Ratesneutralshort-termThe 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.65%, and RBC said 6% is not impossible; however, short positioning in the bond market is already very crowded, and weak economic data or a rapid drop in oil could trigger sharp short-covering. The host believes the long-end yield selloff is unlikely to persist over the long run; the only question is when the short-term inflection arrives. Although it is not yet time to go long bonds, investors should not aggressively add to short bond positions.Source