What Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. said in this video:
- HSYbearishmid-termHershey offers only a 3% yield plus modest growth for a 5-7% total return, unattractive versus 5% treasuries, and remains fairly to exuberantly priced.Source
- Recession Risknegative for stockslong-termThe host stresses that 17 years without a recession is exactly why cycle-reversion risk is building; industrials would fall hard when it turns.Source
- HONbearishlong-termHoneywell's aerospace business looks fine now, but as an industrial it could easily fall 50% when the cycle reverts.Source
- ROLneutrallong-termRollins has fallen significantly and is now fairly priced for its quality, but a 30x P/E still makes it very risky.Source
- PIIbearishlong-termPolaris shows decent growth but carries significant debt and leverage versus its market cap, and off-road/RV is a very difficult sector when consumers tighten up.Source
- CATbearishlong-termCaterpillar's results and guidance look great, but it is a crazy cyclical that earns nothing in downturns; market cap could fall to $100B or less, making it a gambling stock with strong 5-year risk.Source