What XTrader猫姐美股 said in this video:
- IWMbearishshort-termIWM broke down together with SPY on Thursday and performed unsatisfactorily. The host believes IWM and SPY need to repair next week, together with QQQ holding its pattern, before she would consider adding a small position; her current view is bearish.Source
- QQQbearishshort-termQQQ rebounded on Friday and reclaimed its 8- and 21-day moving averages, but the host views the rebound as unsustainable. If it rises further next week without structural repair, it is a false rally that will eventually correct sharply. She would only consider adding a small position if SPY and IWM repair and QQQ holds its pattern; overall position size should stay small.Source
- SPYbearishshort-termSPY's price action from Tuesday to Thursday was very ugly and it broke down; Friday's candle was also ugly. Order-flow showed no confidence, minimal short covering, and no bullish action, which is why the host kept reducing exposure. She is bearish on SPY and needs to see it repair before considering adding back.Source
- Market Breadthneutralshort-termThe host's biggest concern about this rally is the absence of new buyers and new money; only existing capital rotates among sectors such as semiconductors, optical communications, software, and healthcare, causing rotation and divergence. New capital has been absent, and this unresolved issue means the move cannot be confirmed.Source
- Fed Policyneutralshort-termThe host notes CPI rose 3.4% YoY and 0.4% MoM, consistent with a rate-hike path; two hikes this year are fully priced in, with CME showing the September/next-week hike probability rising to 80%. She believes this expectation will not change with a single month's CPI, especially since CPI conditions remain unfavorable and energy/food prices are not optimistic later.Source
- Bonds & Ratesnegative for stocksshort-termThe bond market does not endorse Friday's stock rebound: the 10-year US Treasury yield rose while the 2-year yield fell, implying that rate hikes are seen as positive for short-duration debt but that the long end signals economic pessimism. This yield structure pressures tech names and high-beta US stocks, creating a negative overhang for equities.Source