What NaNa说美股 said in this video:
- InflationneutralThe US September ISM manufacturing prices paid index rose sharply, and together with today's higher oil prices further reinforced market worries that inflation and rates will stay high.Source
- Bonds & Ratesneutralshort-termOnly if the 30-year Treasury yield quickly breaks below its 5-day moving average and continues lower would it signal that downward pressure on short-end rates is truly easing; today's intraday pullback does not prove a top is in.Source
- SPYneutralshort-termThe S&P 500 printed a doji, briefly broke below the 50-day moving average intraday but closed back above it, so it should be treated as high-level consolidation for now; stronger supports below are around 7600 and 7500.Source
- Otherneutralshort-termThe indexes look calm with 45 straight sessions without a 1% single-day drop, but this calm may soon change because October is historically the most volatile month for US stocks.Source
- GeopoliticsneutralIf the US restarts military action against Iran after the midterm elections, the widely expected post-election rally may not happen, making this October's setup more complicated.Source
- AI Capexpositive for stocksThe AI sector remains strong, and the OpenAI conference will be held in late October or November; as long as Treasury yields do not keep surging out of control, funds can easily rotate back into these high-prosperity sectors.Source
- DIAneutralThe Dow is approaching its annual line and is the weakest of the major indexes, but this only describes its weak state without giving a clear directional call.Source