What Meet Kevin said in this video:
- Inflationnegative for stocksshort-termPPI came in far above expectations and was miserably hot across the board, driven by fuel and gasoline; this should push yields back up, which is bad for bonds and creates problems for the Fed.Source
- Consumernegative for stocksmid-termRetail sales are starting to roll over outside of gasoline, with the control group missing and prior reads revised lower, showing consumer weakness outside fuel spending.Source
- TLTbullishlong-termTLT is forming a bottom with a well-respected long-term floor around 78.77; amid AI-trade fear, money is rotating into risk-free 5% Treasuries, making bond prices attractive.Source
- CRWVbearishshort-termCoreWeave fell 15% yesterday with most of the drop during market hours; the host thinks it is premature to argue the selling pain is over, implying more pressure.Source
- Bonds & Ratespositive for stocksmid-termDespite hot inflation data such as PPI, the 10-year Treasury yield has topped at 5.27 and is falling as AI-trade fear drives rotation into risk-free government bonds.Source
- AVGObearishshort-termBroadcom, along with SpaceX and Oracle, is raising large capital, creating an AI capex suck that drives hardware volatility and downside.Source
- ORCLneutralOracle is expected to announce $140 billion of capital raising, part of the AI capex suck, but the host gave no price direction.Source
- QQQbullishlong-termQQQ is falling under the weight of the AI capex suck and just lost 725, with 715 and 700 as next supports; however, the host still believes it can reach 800 by year end.Source